Georgian Railway Corridor`s Potential Analysis in the Competitive Environment

The main purpose of the research is to study the potential of the Georgian Railway Corridor in the competitive environment and to analyze the challenges. In particular, the main objective of the study was to predict the probability of a possible crisis of the railway business using the Altman Z-model as a result of reduced cargo shipments. The object of research is the chosen Georgian Railway Transit Corridor, namely it was important to study the impact of recent changes in freight traffic on the rail transport business on the rail transport business. The paper presents the results of an empirical analysis that based on the reduced number of the cargo transported between the years 2013-2019, using the Altman Z-model, the probability of possible bankruptcy of the Georgian railway business was determined. Based on regression analysis, SLOPE is calculated as the change in cargo turnover and average income. Cargo is transported from Asia to Europe using the Georgian Railway Corridor and vice versa in 15 countries. The findings of the study show the increase in the number of cargo transit from the presented countries is shown in the direction of 7 countries (Turkey, Turkmenistan, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan), the transit traffic decreased in the direction of the other 8 countries. The results of the study can be useful as it provides important recommendations.